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Anderson Wille

AFC North Preview and Best Bets

2023 AFC NORTH STANDINGS


  1. BALTIMORE RAVENS (13-4)

  2. CLEVELAND BROWNS (11-6)

  3. PITTSBURGH STEELERS (10-7)

  4. CINCINATI BENGALS (9-8)


2024 AFC NORTH ODDS (BETONLINE)


BALTIMORE RAVENS: +150

CINCINNATI BENGALS: +155

CLEVELAND BROWNS: +500

PITTSBURGH STEELERS: +600



BALTIMORE RAVENS



2023 Record: 13-4


2023 Result: Lost AFC Championship game


KEY ADDITIONS: RB Derrick Henry, LB Chris Board, OT Josh Jones, CB Ka’Dar Hollman, WR Deonte Harty


KEY LOSSES: RB Gus Edwards, S Geno Stone, WR Devin Duvernay, CB Ronald Darby, LS Tyler Ott, LG John Simpson, LB Del’Shawn Phillips, LB Patrick Queen, QB Tyler Huntley, OG Kevin Zeitler, OLB Jadeveon Clowney, CB Rock Ya-Sin, RB J.K. Dobbins


2024 OUTLOOK:


The biggest splash the Ravens made this offseason was bringing in RB Derrick Henry, the man who accounted for over 200 yards from scrimmage in the 2020 divisional playoffs against the #1 seed Ravens, helping to send them home early in what was a massive upset. This move could signal a small culture shift for the Ravens after their season ended in the AFC Championship against the Chiefs last season, in what was a questionably executed, pass-first game plan from offensive coordinator Todd Monken. There is no question that Henry and Lamar Jackson will form an extremely dangerous backfield, but this team has a lot of questions surrounding their offensive line after losing 3 starters including both guards and RT Morgan Moses. Will Baltimore be able to run the ball effectively with their retooled offensive line? Will these new additions be able to consistently protect Lamar Jackson? These are questions that need to be answered for the Ravens, as one of the most important units on the roster has some serious potential issues.


Another big departure for this team was DC Mike McDonald leaving for the head coaching job in Seattle. In 2023, the Ravens ranked 1st in scoring defense and 2nd in opponent yards per play. While the defense certainly had talent, Mike McDonald undoubtedly did an amazing job of maximizing the pieces on this roster with his creative scheming and play calling. Losing McDonald is going to be tough for this team to replace as first year DC Zach Orr takes his place. The Ravens also lost S Geno Stone, ILB Patrick Queen and OLB Jadeveon Clowney, all of which were key pieces on this defense last year. Factor in the fact that Ravens have a first year DC and have lost numerous key starters, it would be reasonable to expect some regression from one of the league’s best defenses last season. 


The final concern with the Ravens is their Schedule. Due to their impressive record last season, the Ravens have a first place schedule this year meaning they play teams with better records than the other teams in their division. 4 of their first 5 games are against teams with totals sitting at 9.5 or higher, in what should be a tough opening stretch for this Ravens team. 


VERDICT: PASS


This team had some serious questions regarding this roster on both sides of the ball. I would not bet them to win their division, but at the same time I would stay away from their win total unders, given that all Lamar Jackson has done as a starting QB in the NFL is win games. 


LEAN: UNDER 10.5 Wins (-115)


PROPS TO CONSIDER:


Derrick Henry UNDER 1000.5 Rushing Yards (-125)


CLEVELAND BROWNS



2023 Record: 11-6


2023 Result: Lost in AFC Wild Card Round


KEY ADDITIONS: QB Jameis Winston, RB Hyheim Hines, RB D’Onta Foreman, WR Jerry Juedy, OT Hakeem Adeniji, DT Quinton Jefferson, LB Jordan Hicks, LB Devin Bush, CB Tony Brown


KEY LOSSES: QB Joe Flacco, RB Kareem Hunt, TE Harrison Bryant, C Nick Harris, DT Shelby Harris, DT Jordan Elliott, LB Anthony Walker, LB Sione Takitaki, S Duron Harmon


2024 OUTLOOK: 


A lot of the Cleveland Browns potential success in 2024 is reliant on the performance of QB Deshaun Watson. If he can stay healthy and return to some variation of his 2020 self, where he threw for 4,823 yards and 33 touchdowns, then the potential for this Cleveland Browns team will be through the roof. However, if he continues to suffer through injuries and perform at a level substantially below the level he played at for the Houston Texans, then we can expect this offense to continue to struggle. While there are big questions surrounding Deshaun Watson this season, the reality is that the Browns have surrounded him with the pieces needed to compete for a Super Bowl.


Deshaun Watson will be protected by one of the league's most talented offensive lines, which was decimated by injuries last year as 3 of their top tackles were injured throughout the year. If they can remain healthy however, they project as one of the league's best units, returning all 5 starters. Watson will also get RB Nick Cubb back at some point this season, who has been one of the best RBs in the NFL when healthy. The Browns also have plenty of weapons in the passing game, as Watson will have Amari Cooper back and newcomer Jerry Jeudy enters the scene from Denver. They also have TE David Njoku who should have another big year as he continues to gain chemistry with Deshaun Watson. The Browns offense has some legitimate potential with all of the weapons surrounding Watson, much of their success will depend on whether he can deliver.


The defense remains loaded, led by reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year, Myles Garrett. Garrett is the unquestioned leader of this defense that finished 2nd in DVOA in 2023, trailing only the Ravens. Browns fans can expect more of the same in 2024, the team made some changes to their linebacking corps and restructured their interior defensive line, which are moves that should only help the defense improve. Their secondary, led by Denzel Ward, remains one of the league's top units, and should continue to make life difficult on opposing quarterbacks. 


The Browns have a hard schedule compared to league average, but again much of that is due to the AFC North being one of the NFL’s best and deepest divisions. The Browns open their season with a myriad of winnable games, making now the time to get in on Cleveland. This roster is packed with talent from top to bottom, and while they may not have the highest floor in this AFC North, I believe they have one of the highest ceilings.


VERDICT: Browns OVER 9.5 WINS (+140), Browns to win AFC North (+500)


This Browns team can easily compete for the division title in what should be a competitive 3 team race between the Ravens and Bengals. This price is way too wide for a team that arguably has the most talented roster in the division. Given their easy start to the season, now is the time to bet the Browns to win the AFC North.


PROPS TO CONSIDER:


Amari Cooper OVER 950.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Deshaun Watson OVER 3200.5 Passing Yards (-105)


PITTSBURGH STEELERS



2023 Record: 10 -7


2023 Result: Lost AFC Wild Card Round


KEY ADDITIONS: QB Russell Wilson, P Cameron Johnston, QB Justin Fields, RB Cordarrelle Patterson, S Deshon Elliot, WR Van Jefferson, WR Quez Watkin, DT Dean Lowry, LB Patrick Queen, CB Donte Jackson


KEY LOSSES: QB Kenny Picket, QB Mason Rudolph, WR Diontae Johnson, CB Levi Wallace, DT Armon Watts, LB Kwon Alexander OLB Markus Golden, LB Blake Martinez, CB Chandon Sullivan, CB James Pierre, S Patrick Peterson, S Keanu Neal, C Mason Cole


2024 OUTLOOK:


The story of the offseason in Pittsburgh has been the ever-changing QB room. Replacing QBs Kenny Picket and Mason Rudolph are Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. It seems as though Rusell Wilson is going to be the starter to start the season, and he does not have many weapons to work with. Wilson will have WR George Pickens and TE Pat Friermuth as reliable pass-catching options, but after losing WR Diontae Johnson to the Carolina Panthers, the WR room is not very deep outside of Pickens. While Wilson was decent in Denver last season, throwing for over 3,070 yards to go along with 26 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, it is clear that he is on the latter half of his career, and it is going to take more than a 35 year old QB to fix this offense. With that being said, the Steelers brought in former Atlanta Falcons Head Coach Aurthur Smith this offseason to be their new offensive coordinator, who is known as a more traditional, run-heavy play caller. The combination of Smith, lacking QB play, and a young and improved offensive line means the Steelers will likely be a run heavy team in 2024 so I wouldn’t be expecting many fireworks from this offense. While it may not be the most exciting style of play, it does have the potential to be effective when paired with a capable Defense. 


While there are questions on the offensive side of the ball, the Steelers should boast an elite defense yet again in 2024. The Steelers ranked 6th in DVOA on the defensive side of the ball last season, and as long as TJ Watt is healthy and active, you can expect this defense to be good again this season. The Steelers also stole ILB Patrick Queen in free agency from the Ravens, who was an integral part of the Ravens’ league leading defense last season, and S DeShon Elliot, who was an important piece to Miami’s secondary last season. With these new pieces, If TJ Watt can stay healthy, this defense should be elite again in 2024.


As far as the Schedule is concerned, the Steelers have one of the toughest in the league. However, much of this is due to the AFC North being arguably the NFL’s strongest division. The Steelers’ schedule also starts off much easier than it finishes, with games against the Falcons, Chargers, Broncos, and Colts in their first 4 games. 


VERDICT: PASS


The Steelers win total sits at 8.5 wins. What you need to know is that Tomlin has had 17 straight non-losing seasons, so if the Steelers go under this number, that means that Tomlin’s record will be broken as well. Given the overall strength of the AFC North and the questions that surround this team on the offensive side of the ball, I'd suggest either staying away or trying to fade this team in the futures market.


LEAN: UNDER 8.5 Wins (-145)


PROPS TO CONSIDER:


Najee Harris OVER 800.5 Rushing Yards (-115)



CINCINNATI BENGALS



2023 Record: 9-8


2023 Result: Missed Playoffs


KEY ADDITIONS: S Vonn Bell, RB Zack Moss, TE Mike Gesicki, OT Trent Brown, DT Sheldon Rankins, S Geno Stone


KEY LOSSES: RB Joe Mixon, WR Tyler Boyd, CB Chidobe Awuzie, TE Irv Smith, OT Jonah Williams, DT D.J. Reader, S Nick Scott


2024 Outlook: 


The Bengals finished the 2023 with an underwhelming 9-8 record, and ended up missing the NFL Playoffs entirely. With QB Joe Burrow back and healthy to start the season, there is plenty of hope that this year's Bengals team will experience far more success. When healthy, the Bengals still bolster a bunch of talented players on offense, led by the dynamic trio of Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, and Jamar Chase, which led the Bengals to the Super Bowl in 2022. However this year their supporting cast will look a little different. RB Joe Mixon left for the Texans in free agency, but the front office brought in RB Zach Moss from the Colts as his replacement. Burrow’s trusted third option Tyler Bord also left in free agency, and the Bengals drafted Jermaine Burton out of Alabama as his replacement. The Bengals will be returning 4 of their 5 offensive line starters from last season, with 1st round draft pick Amarius Mims waiting on sidelines to replace one of their Bengals subpar tackles.


On the defensive side of the ball, the Bengals lost both DT D.J. Reader, and C.B. Chidobe Awuzie, but brought in S Geno Stone from their division rival, the Ravens, and DT Sheldon Rankins. D.J. Reader was viewed as not only one of the best players, but also as the leader of this Bengals defense so his departure will definitely be tough to deal with. Other than that though not much has changed from a Bengals defense that ranked 23rd in DVOA last season.


The Bengals success rides on Joe Burrow and the passing game, the only way this team competes for a Super Bowl is if Burrow is healthy and elite. There are still questions surrounding stud WR Jamar Chase and his contract negotiations, but this Bengals team will certainly need him on the field if they want to compete for this division title, as he is a vital piece to Burrow’s success.


VERDICT: Bengals UNDER 10.5 WINS (+105)


While this Bengals team has some potential to make some noise in the AFC if Burrow, Chase and Higgins play at an elite level, the rest of the roster is not up to the level of their competitors in both the AFC and AFC North specifically. With the way the Bengals are being priced in the market, and the uncertainty surrounding star WR Jamar Chase, this team is a fade for me.


PROPS TO CONSIDER: 


Tee Higgins OVER 5.5 Receiving TD’s (-125)


FINAL BETS AND PREDICTIONS


AFC NORTH 2024 PREDICTIONS


  1. Browns (11-6)

  2. Ravens (10-7)

  3. Bengals (9-8)

  4. Steelers (7-10)


AFC NORTH BEST BETS


Bengals UNDER 10.5 WINS (+105)

Browns OVER 9.5 WINS (+140)

Browns AFC North (+500)

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