Quarter 1
2u @ Medvedev to reach QF (+100)
1u @ Medvedev Q1 Winner (+275)
The first quarter of the US open draw is headlined by world #1 Jannik Sinner and #5 Danil Medvedev. These two are on a collision course for the quarterfinals as there are not many viable threats in this section of the draw that can beat either of these two over 5 sets on fast hardcourts. Tommy Paul could potentially make things tough on Sinner in a potential round 4 matchup, but I still don’t see him having enough to actually win that match. Medvedev’s biggest threat in the lower half of this quarter would have to be either Stefanos Tsitsipas or Felix Auger-Aliassime, and Medvedev is 3-0 against both of them in hardcourt 5-set matches. Now this leaves Sinner and Medvedev competing for the quarter 1 crown. With the way it is priced in the market, Medvedev is a great bet here. Medvedev is 27-4 at the US Open over the last 5 years and this tournament is a place where he seems to have found his peak form over the course of his career. Their overall head-to-head sits at 7-5 in favor of Medvedev, although Sinner has dominated their recents matchups. Ultimately I think these two are going to be pretty evenly matched if they do face off in the US Open quarterfinals, at least much more than these current odds suggest.
Quarter 2
NO BET
I don’t believe there is anyone in this quarter that can beat Carlos Alcaraz in these conditions over 5 sets, certainly not any that I am going to put my money on. At the same time I'm not going to lay -200 plus on a quarter winner, so I am happy to pass here.
Quarter 3
2u @ Zverev Q3 Winner (+120)
The third quarter of the draw runs through Alexander Zverev. The German has dominated at the US Open when he’s been healthy, is in good form, and has received a very favorable draw. Zverev avoids Alcaraz, Sinner, Djokovic, and Medvedev in his quarter, with his biggest threats on paper looking like Taylor Fritz and Casper Ruud. As far as his history at the US Open is concerned, Zverev is 18-4 in New York dating back to 2019, and has made the Semifinals twice in his last 4 US Open appearances. Zverev at +120 to win the quarter is a smart bet, as he will be heavily favored against anyone leading up to the quarterfinals, and would still most likely be a sizable favorite to either Fritz or Ruud if either of them make it that far.
0.5u @ Pablo Carreno-Busta Q3 Winner (+4000)
The only other threat that I think can go on a run in this quarter is Pablo Carreno-Busta. Carreno-Busta has been dealing with major injuries over the last few years and has missed a lot of time and events, including last year's US Open. However, last week in Winston Salem he looked incredible, winning 4 straight matches fairly easily before withdrawing against Michelson in the second set, seemingly to conserve energy for the US Open. Carreno-Busta has made the semifinals twice in the last 6 years at the US Open, and is a very capable player, specifically on hard courts. This is worth a bet at 40-1 as Busta seems to be much healthier and back in form for an event he has generated consistent results at.
Quarter 4
NO BET
Similar to Alcaraz in quarter 2, I think Novak Djokovic wins this quarter fairly easily as there aren’t any threats to him over 5 sets in this section. However given all the unknowns surrounding his health, motivation, and age I’m not willing to lay -225 on him winning the quarter. I will be staying away from this quarter for now.
Outright Winner
1u @ Zverev (+850)
Based on the way the market has developed for this event, Zverev is the outright bet with the most value. He is nearly even odds to make the final 4 yet is so much steeper in price compared to Djokovic, Sinner, and Alcaraz, which doesn’t make sense considering he has proven that he can be competitive with all of them, especially at the US Open. Zverev leads Alcaraz 6-5 in their head to head, leads Sinner 4-2, and trails Djokovic 4-8. It’s clear he can compete with these top guys if they are there waiting for him in the end, earlier this year he even took Alcraz to 5 sets in the French Open final. He has also beated Sinner twice in both 2021 and 2023 at the US Open. Look for Zverev to be right in contention at the end of this tournament, I think this is the one he finally breaks through and wins his first major.
0.5u @ Medvedev (+1600)
I have to add to my quarter futures on him at this price. Even though he’ll likely have to beat Sinner, Alcaraz and Djokovic or Zverev in three straight matches, I still believe he can do it. I'm buying Danil Medvedev at 16-1.
1u @ Zverev vs. Alcaraz Finals Matchup (+1200)
This seems like the most likely finals matchup and they are pricing it at 12-1. Alcaraz will likely play the winner of the Sinner vs Medvedev quarterfinal matchup, which should be a long, grueling match which should ultimately give Alcaraz the upper hand. In general he has proven to be very tough to beat over five sets on any surface, so this is a good way to include him in our bets.
Final Bets
2u @ Medvedev to reach QF (+100)
1u @ Medvedev Q1 Winner (+275)
0.5u @ Medvedev Outright Winner (+1600)
2u @ Zverev Q3 Winner (+120)
1u @ Zverev Outright Winner (+850)
1u @ Zverev vs Alcaraz Exact Final (+1200)
0.5u @ Pablo Carreno Busta Q3 Winner (+4000)
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