With NFL Week 6 approaching, I will go over the 3 best futures bets you can add to your portfolio right now. As the season progesses, the odds will fluctuate quite a bit on these, so make sure to place these bets before Sunday.
WEEK 6 NFL FUTURES BETS
Patrick Surtain II - DPOY (+1950)
Denver is 3-2 with one of the league’s best defenses. They rank 3rd in yards allowed per game and also rank 4th in FTN’s Defensive DVOA metric. A big reason for this is Patrick Surtain II who has been shadowing and effectively shutting down the NFL’s best wide receivers week after week. Here is what Surtain II has held the opposing team's best wide receiver to when he was covering them each game this year:
Week 1 - DK Metcalf: 3 catches for 29 yards (24 routes)
Week 2 - George Pickens: 1 catch for 16 yards (11 routes)
Week 3 - Mike Evans: 1 catch for 8 yards (24 routes)
Week 4 - Garrett Wilson: 2 catches for 22 yards (28 routes)
He is locking down some of the league’s most talented receivers week after week, and is a huge reason why Denver is 3-2 and this defensive unit is so elite.
Last week against the Raiders, Surtain II had 2 interceptions, with of them being an 100 yard interception return for a touchdown, which completely flipped the momentum in the game. It was the type of breathtaking play that you would expect from a DPOY, and the type of moment that can swing voters down the stretch.
Ultimately, this is a narrative award that is usually given to players who put up elite statistical production on a top-10 defense. While Surtain II may lack what some of the contender’s put up in terms of raw stats, his consistent shut down coverage of the NFL’s best players should have him right in the thick of this race, as long as Denver continues to stay in the playoff picture.
CeeDee Lamb - Most Receiving Yards (+800)
The most important factor with this bet is timing. Nico Collins, the NFL’s leader in receiving yards and the odds on favorite in this market, has been placed on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. This means he will be out for the next 4 games at a minimum which all but eliminates him from maintaining his spot at the top by league’s end. With Collins out of the running, I like CeeDee Lamb’s chances of claiming the NFL receiving title. He has had a somewhat slow start to the year with only 378 yards through 4 games, but he is primed for a breakthrough. This week the Cowboys take on the Lions who Lamb torched last year for 227 yards. Brandon Cooks is on injured reserve for Dallas which leaves them very thin in the wide receiver room, which means even more looks should come his way going forward. Given this week's advantageous matchup for Lamb and Nico Collins injury, now is the right time to invest in CeeDee Lamb leading the league in receiving yards.
Joe Burrow - Offensive Player of the Year (+9000)
The Bengals have started the season 1-4 which is skewing these odds for Joe Burrow too much. Burrow ranks 1st among quarterbacks in adjusted EPA per play and TD passes, and 2nd in total QBR which are all common metrics that voters use to evaluate QB play. Despite their slow start, the Bengals could easily be 4-1 or 3-2 as they have lost all of their 4 games by one score or less, all of which happened in heartbreaking fashion. Two of these losses were to the two betting favorites to win the Super Bowl, the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens.
Joe Burrow is currently 20-1 for Most Valuable Player (MVP) and the 7th favorite for the award. How is he more likely to win MVP than Offensive player of the Year (OPOY)? MVP is a winning award that usually goes to a quarterback that is on the 1-seed in their conference. The Bengals are going to have a tough time winning enough games for Burrow to win MVP, but if they can get to 8,9 or even 10 wins he could certainly be considered for OPOY. Everyone is well aware of how atrocious the Bengals defense is so if Burrow can single-handedly keep this team afloat he will get media respect and will have a legitimate narrative and argument.
The Bengals schedule also plays a huge role in this future with their next four games coming against the Giants, Browns, Eagles and Raiders, with the latter two coming at home. There is a solid chance that the Bengals win at least 3 of these which would put them at 4-5, and 4 wins would put them at 5-4. Burrow still might not have a shot at MVP hovering around .500 but could certainly become a contender for Offensive Player of the Year.
Finally, the Bengals over/under win total is still sitting at 8.5 and their odds to make the playoffs are around +140 at most shops. Vegas clearly still has a lot of respect for this Bengals team, pricing them at a 41.7% chance to make the playoffs. If the Bengals still have a 40% chance to make the playoffs, Joe Burrow has to have more than a 1.1% chance of winning OPOY, which is what the market pricing implies. Add this future on Joe Burrow while you still can in case this Bengals team starts to rack up some wins.
BEST BETS RECAP:
1u @ Patrick Surtain II - Defensive Player of the Year (+1950)
1u @ CeeDee Lamb - Most Receiving Yards (+800)
0.5u @ Joe Burrow - Offensive Player of the Year (+9000)
All of these will be tracked as official bets! Follow us on X @thespreadslicer for of all of our best bets and content!
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